Prediction MarketIndex
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The basics

Understand prediction markets before you risk anything.

Short, plain guides that explain how prediction markets work, how to read a price as a probability, where the risk really sits, and how to stay in control. No jargon and no hype.

General information, not financial, investment, legal, tax, or betting advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss. 18 plus or the legal age in your region.

A prediction market price is really a probability in disguise. Learning to read it, and understanding how a contract settles and where you can lose money, matters more than any single trade. These guides start from the basics and stay in plain language. They are educational and never tell you what to back or promise that you will win.

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The guides we have published

How prediction markets work
An education pillar on how prediction markets work: what an event contract is, how a price reads as an implied probability, the exchange model with…
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Prediction market strategy basics
An education pillar on prediction market strategy basics: reading a price as a probability, calibration over conviction, resolution rules, costs…
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Reading prices as implied probability
An education pillar on reading a prediction market price as an implied probability: the cents to percent translation, why it is implied rather than…
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Responsible play and staying in control
A plain spoken pillar guide to responsible play in prediction markets and event contracts: setting money and time limits, the traps that pull you off…
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Understanding the risk of loss in prediction markets
A plain spoken pillar guide to how you lose money in prediction markets and event contracts: probabilities versus outcomes, fees and spread…
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Where to go next

Learn the basics, then look at the platforms and the rules

Once the mechanics make sense, the platform profiles show where each market lives and the legality pages show where it is allowed. Read first, decide for yourself.

Get The Forecast, our plain language brief on platform changes and shifting legality. One email, no tips, no hype.

Common questions

Questions readers ask

Do I need any experience to read these guides?

No. The guides assume no background. They start with what a prediction market is and build up to reading prices and managing risk, all in plain language.

Will these guides tell me how to win money?

No. They explain how the markets work and where the risk sits. Prediction markets carry a real risk of loss and nothing here is a strategy that guarantees a profit.

Are prediction markets a form of gambling?

They share features with both trading and betting, and the legal classification varies by venue and region. The guides explain the mechanics, and the legality pages cover how different places treat them.