A calm weekly read on prediction markets and event contracts. What changed, where it is legal now, and what to verify before you act. No tips, no picks, no hype.
An independent reference briefing. General information only, not financial, investment, legal, tax, or betting advice.
The Forecast is a free email briefing. Each issue rounds up the developments that matter in prediction markets: a regulator filing, a platform that opened or closed in a state, a fee change, a tax point worth knowing. We write it the way the rest of this site is written, as a plain reference for a careful person who wants accurate information before deciding anything.
You will never get a tip, a pick, or a claim that any outcome is certain. We do not sell signals and we do not tell you what to trade. We point you to the primary source so you can check it yourself.
A typical issue covers three things. First, regulation, because in this niche the rules move faster than anything else. We track the position of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and other regulators, and we flag when a state position is contested rather than settled.
Second, availability. A platform can be open to a reader in one place and closed in another, and that changes often. Third, the mechanics: how a contract price reflects an implied probability, how fees and settlement work, and where the common misunderstandings are.
We are an independent informational resource. We are not affiliated with any platform, and we do not rank or recommend a specific venue to you. Where a platform is genuinely legal and available to a reader, we explain how to compare the options and how to verify eligibility before acting.
Every claim about legality, fees, or tax carries an as of date, because a fact that was true last quarter may not be true now. When something is unclear, we say so rather than guess.
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Prediction markets can lose you money. Trade only what you can afford to lose, never to chase losses, and never on borrowed money. If it stops feeling like a choice, step back. In the US you can call or text 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
Yes. It is a free email briefing. You can leave at any time using the link in any issue.
No. We do not predict outcomes, sell signals, or tell you what to trade. The Forecast is information, not advice.
Weekly in normal conditions, with the occasional extra note when a major regulatory change lands.
No. Your address is used to send The Forecast and nothing else.
No. It is general information about how prediction markets work and how the rules change. Verify the current rules and your own eligibility before participating.